Understanding the Law of Averages in Cricket – Explained with Examples

Cricket isn’t just about talent and performance — it’s also a game of numbers, probabilities, and patterns. One of the most talked-about theories in cricket analysis is the Law of Averages.

Ever heard a commentator say:

“He’s due for a big score”
“This bowler is bound to take a wicket soon”
That’s the Law of Averages at work.

But is it real? Or just a myth used by fans and pundits?

In this guide, we’ll break down what the Law of Averages really means in cricket, how it works, and why it matters — for players, teams, and even fantasy cricket fans.

🔍 What is the Law of Averages in Cricket?

The Law of Averages is the belief that if something happens frequently now, the opposite will happen soon to “balance” the results over time.

In cricket, it’s applied like this:

• A batsman who hasn’t scored in 5 innings is “due” for a big one
• A team that’s lost 6 matches in a row is “bound to win” the next
• A bowler who’s gone wicketless in 3 matches will “definitely get one soon”

💡 But remember: This is more psychological than statistical.

🏏 Real-Life Examples in Cricket

Real-life cricket is full of moments where the law of averages feels like it’s playing a role — whether it’s a star batsman returning to form, a bowler finally breaking a dry spell, or an underperforming team making a dramatic comeback. Though not a scientific rule, it often reflects the belief that good players can’t stay out of form for long — and that eventually, things will balance out.

🧑‍🏫 Example 1: Virat Kohli’s Century Drought (2019–2022)

For almost 3 years, Virat didn’t score a century. Critics kept saying:

“He’s too good. The law of averages will catch up.”
And finally, in 2022 Asia Cup, he returned with a blistering ton.

🎯 Example 2: MS Dhoni’s Finishing Ability

Dhoni failed in a few run chases in 2016-17, but fans believed:

“Law of averages! He’s not going to miss again.”
He came back and pulled off multiple last-over wins.

🏆 Example 3: Mumbai Indians (IPL 2023)

They lost several games back-to-back, yet fans held hope:

“MI can’t keep losing. Law of averages will work.”
And they made a late comeback, almost qualifying for playoffs.

📊 Law of Averages vs. Actual Averages

Term	Meaning in Cricket
Law of Averages	Psychological belief that past poor performance will soon be balanced by good performance
Batting/Bowling Average	Actual statistical measure: runs scored/wickets taken over innings

Law of Averages is not a number. It’s a mindset, and often misleading if misunderstood.

⚖️ Does It Really Work in Cricket?

Cricket is unpredictable — and while the law of averages gives fans and players hope, it doesn’t guarantee outcomes. Performance on the field depends on multiple factors: form, conditions, opposition, and mindset. So, relying solely on averages can be risky. It’s better used as a psychological boost than a prediction tool.

✅ When it helps:

• Boosts player confidence (“I’ll bounce back soon”)
• Keeps fans hopeful
• Influences team strategy & rotation

❌ When it fails:

• Can mislead captains into backing out-of-form players
• Causes false expectations (e.g., gambling fallacy)
• May overlook current form & match conditions

🧠 Why Is It So Popular in Cricket Analysis?

• Cricket is full of streaks – good and bad
• Fans love predicting comebacks
• Analysts need a narrative — and law of averages gives it
• Fantasy cricket & betting decisions often rely on this thinking

But remember:

“Law of Averages can’t predict performance — only numbers and form can.”

📈 Impact on Fantasy Cricket & Betting

If you play Dream11, MPL, or Stake-style betting platforms — be cautious:

• Don’t blindly pick players just because they’re due
• Always check recent form, pitch conditions, and opposition
• Use data, not hope

📌 Example: If a batsman got out for a duck twice, doesn’t guarantee a 100 in the next.

✅ Final Thoughts – Should You Believe in the Law of Averages?

The Law of Averages in cricket is more of a mental comfort than a real tool. While it may seem logical that a good player will eventually perform, cricket doesn’t follow emotional rules — it follows form, skill, and strategy.

✅ Use it as a soft insight,
❌ Not as a prediction engine.

“Class is permanent, form is temporary — and law of averages? Well, it’s just hope in disguise.”